Frequently Asked Questions
What is the hit rate for All-Pro players drafted at pick 25?
According to a 35-year study by The Hog Sty using Pro Football Reference data, the hit rate for an All-Pro player at pick 25 is 11%. That's essentially a 1-in-10 shot at finding elite talent.
How much money would the Bears save by trading back from pick 25 to pick 40?
The Bears would save approximately $7 million by trading back from pick 25 to pick 40. A pick 25 contract costs roughly $19 million fully guaranteed, while a pick 40 contract costs around $12 million.
What is the 'Dead Zone' in the NFL draft?
The 'Dead Zone' refers to the area around pick 25 where talent flattens out but costs remain high due to the rookie wage scale. Teams pay a premium for players who statistically have the same chance of success as players drafted later.
Why should Ryan Poles trade back instead of picking at 25?
Poles should trade back to acquire more draft picks and save money, turning one 11% shot at success into multiple opportunities. The Bears need volume and depth across the roster rather than one expensive lottery ticket.
How did the Bears finish this past season?
The Bears finished 11-6 this season, which was described as incredible. However, the team still showed gaps when injuries hit the secondary and in the trenches.